Group polarization: The phenomenon where we interact with people like us. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Detaching your opinions from your identity. Instead, we tend to double down and sink more resources into the plan.". Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. In collaboration with Greg Mitchell and Linda Skitka, Tetlock has conducted research on hypothetical societies and intuitions about justice ("experimental political philosophy"). He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books.[1]. and comparison of domestic politics across countries. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. The book also profiles several "superforecasters." Psychological Inquiry, 15 (4), 257-278. Decouple your identity from your beliefs. Ernest Hemingway: You cant get away from yourself by moving from one place to another., Our identities are open systems, and so are our lives. NASA took Lucas explanation at face value. Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock review the not-too-promising record of expert predictions of political and social phenomena. Experiments can inform our daily decisions.. How Can We Know? It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," has dedicated his career to answering. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. Study: Typically, researchers report new findings in scholarly journals and Tetlock (1998, 1999) has done so for of some part of the findings of his study. (2006) Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. (2002). How Can We Know? 1993-1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley. the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. Optimism and big-picture thinking will help you sell your business idea. It is the realm of automatic perceptual and cognitive operationslike those you are running right now to transform the print on this page into a meaningful sentence or to hold the book while reaching for a glass and taking a sip. Practical tip: Favor content that presents many sides of an issue rather than a singular or binary view. Outrage goes viral and makes for better sound bites. How Can We Know? The training, techniques and talent described in my book "Superforecasting" can help your organization manage strategic uncertainty. Counterfactual thinking: considering alternative realities, imagining different circumstances and outcomes. PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. 1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford. Taboo Cognition and Sacred Values BACK TO TOP Defining and Assessing Good Judgment My 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Everyone carries cognitive tools that are regularly used and seldom questioned or subject to reflection or scrutiny. He dubbed these people superforecasters. During a spacewalk, Luca felt water in his helmet. Last edited on 18 February 2023, at 16:04, Learn how and when to remove this template message, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals. We distinguish ourselves from our adversariesthey are everything we are not. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. This book fills that need. Why do you think its correct? 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000):853-870. He asked the man How can you hate me when you dont even know me? The men became friends and the KKK member eventually renounced his membership. Central to nearly all debates about politics, power, and justice is the tension between. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas. What are the uncertainties in your analysis? Psychologically unsafe settings hide errors to avoid penalties. How Can We Know? The exercise led her students to question what they were learning and discuss what was included and what was excluded. Wagner Dodge made a quick decision to build an escape fire and lay down in the charred area while the wildfire raged around him. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the worldproducing a clearer picture of reality. [10][11], In a 1985 essay, Tetlock proposed that accountability is a key concept for linking the individual levels of analysis to the social-system levels of analysis. Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? The tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, especially on longerrange forecasts three to five years out. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, He is the author of three books: Expert Political Judgment: How This mindset embraces Grants idea of rethinking. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Hypotheses have as much of a place in our lives as they do in the lab. The spotlight here is on a fundamental question in political theory: who should get what from whom, when, how, and why? Tetlock, P. E. (1994). The authors stress that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods. There is a tension, if not contradiction, between the positions taken in the Good Judgment Project and those that Tetlock took in his earlier book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? View being wrong as a good thing; an opportunity to learn something new. Preachers work well with a congregation. Tetlock has been interested in forecasting since the 1980s, he says during an interview at his home in Philadelphia. We can strategize from there and know which mode, preacher, prosecutor, or politician, to operate from and to. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 43, 195-209. Philip Tetlock's Edge Bio Page [46.50 minutes] INTRODUCTION by Daniel Kahneman Make a list of conditions under which you would change your mind. We want to think of this idea when leading, when following, when making sales, when planning our marketing, and anywhere else we are dealing with the thoughts, opinions, and values of others. It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of " Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ," has dedicated his career. Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Abstract Research on judgment and choice has been dominated by functionalist assumptions that depict people as either intuitive scientists animated. Whats the best way to find those out? He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. If we want to gain alignment we have to understand where everyone is starting from. The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a "dart-throwing chimp," and they are routinely surpassed by normal news-attentive citizens. Being persuaded is defeat. Opening story: Columbia Universitys Difficult Conversations Lab. Im a fan of Adam Granthes a good writer and fun to readbut Think Again isnt his best effort (I much preferred Give and Take and Originals). Since 2011, Tetlock and his wife/research partner Barbara Mellers have been co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a research collaborative that emerged as the winner of the IARPA tournament. These include beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and more. is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. Make a list of conditions in which your forecast holds true. The tournament challenged GJP and its competitors at other academic institutions to come up with innovative methods of recruiting gifted forecasters, methods of training forecasters in basic principles of probabilistic reasoning, methods of forming teams that are more than the sum of their individual parts and methods of developing aggregation algorithms that most effectively distill the wisdom of the crowd.[3][4][5][6][7][8]. One of the subjects was Ted Kaczynski (The Unabomber); he had one of the strongest negative responses to the study. In one of historys great ironies, scientists today know vastly more than their colleagues a century ago, and possess vastly more data-crunching power, but they are much less confident in the prospects for perfect predictability. And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. He struck up a conversation with a white man who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Jeff Bezos: People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. Philip Tetlock (author of 'Super-Forecasting', reviewed in this column) has a useful description of the mindsets we tend to slip into, to avoid rethinking ideas. Good Judgment, Inc. 2014 - Present9 years. Pp. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. Administrative Science Quarterly 45 (2000), 293-326. Present schooling still relies heavily on the lecture. He leads Marie-Helene to decide for herself to vaccinate her child. What might happen if its wrong? It consists of everything we choose to focus on. Philip Tetlock: It virtually always influences how people make decisions, but it's not always good. He coined the term superforecaster to refer to individuals with particularly good judgment, who are able to foresee future outcomes far more accurately than your average person. In real-world debates over distributive justice, however, Tetlock argues it is virtually impossible to disentangle the factual assumptions that people are making about human beings from the value judgments people are making about end-state goals, such as equality and efficiency. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Different physical jobs call for different tools. The team was inserted into challenging conditions and the fire quickly overtook them. Even a single idea can curb overconfidence. Opening story: 1959 Harvard study by Henry Murray (psychologist). One of Philip Tetlocks big ideas* is that we are typically operating in one of three modes when expressing or receiving an idea. You get to pick the reasons you find most compelling, and you come away with a real sense of ownership over them.. Armchair quarterback syndrome: Phenomenon where confidence exceeds competence. Social-Functionalist Metaphors for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. Psychological safety is not a matter of relaxing standardsits fostering a climate of respect, trust, and opennessits the foundation of a learning culture.. Marie-Helene is against vaccines, but the child would benefit from a measles vaccine. I understand the advantages of your recommendation. It was psychologist Philip Tetlock who demonstrated that, generally, the accuracy of our predictions is no better than chance, which means that flipping a coin is just as good as our best guess. Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? I hate you!). This allows them to make more adaptive decisions, which foster success within the company. GET BOOK > Unmaking the West: What-if scenarios that rewrite world history Tetlock, P.E., Lebow, R.N., & Parker, G. Dont try to politic a prosecutor, and be very careful if prosecuting a popular politician. The preacher - this is where we are the 'enlightened one' who knows the answer. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. [20][21][22][23] Real-world implications of this claim are explored largely in business-school journals such as the Journal of Consumer Research, California Management Review, and Journal of Consumer Psychology. Imposter syndrome: Phenomenon where competence exceeds confidence. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. The mission was aborted and Luca barely escaped drowning in his spacesuit due to a mechanical failure that wasnt properly diagnosed. Opening story: Daryl Davis is a musician and a Black man. Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. But a small amount of knowledge can create big problems with the Dunning-Kruger trap as confidence climbs faster than competence. Relationship conflict: Personal feuds and arguments (e.g. What are the disadvantages? Between 1987 and 2003, Tetlock asked 284 people who "comment[ed] or offer[ed] advice on political and economic trends" professionally to make a series of predictive judgments about the world . The three modes (and a quick explanation of each) are: Preacher - we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting our ideals as sacred Prosecutor - we will pick apart the logic of the opposition's idea to prove our own point, marshaling the flaws in others He argues that most political psychologists tacitly assume that, relative to political science, psychology is the more basic discipline in their hybrid field. We can embrace them when theyre within their domains. It implies that we have arrived at an optimal solution. Thinking like a politicianseeking to please otherscan lead us astray. In 2015, Tetlock and Dan Gardners collaborative book on prediction examines why, while most peoples predictions are only slightly better than chance, certain people seem to possess some level of actual foresight. Politicians work well in government settings. How can we know? Critical Review. Today, were privileged to put their insights to work, helping organizations to reduce bias and create better outcomes. Contact: Philip Tetlock, (614) 292-1571; Tetlock.1@osu.edu Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu. Resisting the impulse to simplify is a step toward becoming more argument literate.. caps on vehicle emissions). The lesson is that he lacked flexibility in his thinking. When promoting your idea, you were being a Preacher - arguing your point of view based on a set of prior beliefs. Through consultations and workshops, Tetlock and his colleagues have been working to improve decision-making by promoting the qualities necessary to accurately foresee the outcomes of certain decisions. Professor Tetlock, who's based at the University of Pennsylvania, famously did a 20-year study of political predictions involving more than 280 experts, and found that on balance their rate of . This is especially troubling for people like policymakers, whose decisions affect entire populations. American Psychologist. How Can We Know? Part IV: Conclusion Newsroom. Harish uses a powerful combination of techniquescommon understandings, non-judgmental questions, flexible thinkingto win over some in the audience. It starts with showing more interest in other peoples interests rather than trying to judge their status or prove our own., Many communicators try to make themselves look smart. Professionally, its all about setting the table and/or recognizing the table thats been set. We have to be careful when theyre out of their domains. Only one side can be right because there is only one truth. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 The purpose of learning isnt to affirm our beliefs; its to evolve our beliefs., The rethinking cycle: Humility => Doubt => Curiosity => Discovery, The overconfidence cycle: Pride => Conviction => Confirmation and Desirability Biases => Validation, Chapter 2: The Armchair Quarterback and the Imposter. Group identification helps us achieve these goals. Tetlock is a psychologisthe teaches at Berkeleyand his conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. Present fewer reasons to support their case. The sender of information is often not its source. Opening story: Ursula Mercz, in the late 1800s, was diagnosed as blind but insisted she could see and was completely unaware of this fact. Tetlock has received awards from scientific societies and foundations, including the American Psychological Association, American Political Science Association, American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences and the MacArthur, Sage, Grawemeyer, and Carnegie Foundations. Tetlock aims to provide an answer by analyzing the predictive methodologies of leaders and researching those that are most successful at accurately forecasting future events. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. The final part looks at rethinking at the institutional or group level. Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? The first part considers rethinking at the individual level. Enter your email below and join us. A vaccine whisperer is called in. In environments with psychological safety, teams will report more problems and errors (because they are comfortable doing so). Youre expected to doubt what you know, be curious about what you dont know, and update your views based on new data.. Optimism and. Cognitive bias: Seeing what we want to see. Additionally, Good Judgment offers consulting services that are incredibly valuable for policymakers, who need to anticipate the global consequences of their decisions.7, Foresight isnt a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. What should we eat for dinner?). We wont have much luck changing other peoples minds if we refuse to change ours. The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin's 1950 essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox"). Interrogate information instead of simply consuming it. Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths. Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. Daryl has gone on to befriend a number of former members who have similarly disavowed their past beliefs. Visit www . Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination? the usefulness of hypothetical-society experiments in disentangling fact and value judgments of the impact of competing policy proposals. As in his book, Tetlock describes why a select few people seem to be able to make accurate predictions about the future people he refers to as superforecasters. Example: How does a bicycle, piano or appliance work? When were locked in preacher mode, we are set on promoting our ideas (at the expense of listening to others). Open their mind to the possibility they might be wrong and let them work their way to the solution. The very notion of applying group stereotypes to individuals is absurd., Chapter 7: Vaccine Whisperers and Mild-Mannered Interrogators. In other words, they may as well have just guessed. Most of the other smokejumpers perished. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. flexible thinking. He covers a variety of topics, including the qualities he looks for in a good leader, whether it is becoming more difficult to make predictions about the world, and what we are able to infer from political speeches. Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong. Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. Arkes, H., &Tetlock, P.E. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. A mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.. Be confident in your ability to learn more than in your knowledge (which is malleable). The more pessimistic tone of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and optimistic tone of Superforecasting (2015) reflects less a shift in Tetlocks views on the feasibility of forecasting than it does the different sources of data in the two projects. Prosecutors: We attack the ideas of others, often to win an argument. Part II: Interpersonal Rethinking Grants solution is an idea he calls rethinking. Rethinking is the process of doubting what you know, being curious about what you dont know, and updating your thinking based on new evidence (in other words, the scientific method). Actively seek out reasons why you might be wrong. Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns. PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. jack the ripper documentary channel 5 / ravelry crochet leg warmers / philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. It refers to who must answer to whom for what. When does accountability promote mindless conformity? After seeing Earth from above, their perspective changes and the see the commonality of our existence. The person most likely to persuade you to change your mind is you. As if growing up is finite. In this mode of thinking, changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity, not one of moral weakness or a failure of conviction. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. How Can We Know? By identifying the attributes shared by successful forecasters and the methodologies that allow for accurate forecasting, Tetlock and his team at Good Judgment are able to help companies promote these skills among their employees. Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise", "Disentangling reasons and rationalizations: Exploring perceived fairness in hypothetical societies", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Philip_E._Tetlock&oldid=1140127422. ", "From the commercial to the communal: Reframing taboo trade-offs in religious and pharmaceutical marketing", "Detecting and punishing unconscious bias", "Tetlock, P.E., Armor, D., & Peterson, R. (1994). *Served Daily*. Escalation of commitment is another (psychological factor). The attack on Osama bin Ladens compound employed red teams and statistical risk assessments before the operation; whereas, the battle of the Bay of Pigs was undone by a failure to employ targeted questioning.5, When the scientist tells you he does not know the answer, he is an ignorant man. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. Tetlock, P.E., &Lebow, R.N. When our 'sacred' beliefs are in jeopardy, we 'deliver sermons' to protect and promote our ideals. Task conflict can be beneficial and generate better outcomes. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. Lazaridis was brilliant and turned BlackBerry into a popular business tool. Rather than try to see things from someone elses point of view, talk to those people and learn directly from them. Superforecasting is both a fascinating leap into the art of decision making as well as a manual for thinking clearly in an increasingly uncertain world. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. This is the mindset of the scientist. We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology. Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
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